Week 3 – Florida State University (FSU) at Boston College
Spread: Boston College +26 (-110) -- Over/Under Points: 48 -- Moneyline: BC (+1400) FSU (-3200)
Okay, so if you are keeping track (and if you aren’t, don't worry I am) my record thus far is 4-2. Like most, I was 1-2 in the upset loss to NIU and then a clean 3-0 sweep in the Holy Cross game. Let's see how I fare this week as I make three more selections for the upcoming matchup at Alumni.
This week the Eagles face off versus the number three ranked Florida State Seminoles, and Hurricane Lee could shake things up in what should be a blowout.
Boston College Offense vs. FSU Defense:
The Boston College offense is scoring 27.5 points per game behind dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos. Through two games, Boston College has averaged 181.5 yards per game on the ground and 184.5 yards per game in the air. FSU’s defense is letting up an average 18.5 points per game, 108.5 yards rushing yards per game, and 250 passing yards per game. Boston College's strength is the rushing attack. Look for FSU to stack the box forcing the offense to convert through the air on 3rd and long; something BC struggles with going 13 for 30 (43.3%) on third down this year. FSU can also get after the quarterback totaling 6 sacks thus far in 2023, adding in two interceptions. Look for FSU to test Castellanos as a young quarterback with some interesting defensive looks. I am not sure BC can keep up with what is likely their toughest opponent of the year.
I can see BC scoring two touchdowns, the high winds may make kicking harder than it already seems for BC, so no field goals are predicted from me. I am projecting BC to score 14 points against the FSU defense.
Boston College Defense vs. FSU Offense:
The Boston College defense as a whole is not functioning at a high level and will likely allow a lot of points on Saturday to an offense that is averaging a whopping 55.5 points per game. The Seminoles average 220.5 yards per game rushing and 303.5 yards per game via the pass for a grand total of 524 yards per game. The Eagles have allowed 27.5 points per game, 215 yards per game rushing and 151 yards per game via the pass. The Eagles allowed FCS dual threat quarterback Matt Sluka to pick them apart which makes me a bit concerned for what Heisman candidate, quarterback Jordan Travis, plans to do this weekend. BC’s pass defense has improved, but the pass rush is lacking with only two sacks through two games. Keon Coleman is a deep threat for FSU and may be a player to keep an eye on; he stands tall at 6’4” and weighs in at 215 pounds. Thus far in 2023, he has 12 catches for 170 yards and 4 touchdowns. The FSU offense as a whole is talented and should light up the scoreboard at Alumni Stadium.
I have FSU scoring six touchdowns for 42 points against the Boston College defense.
The BC line opened at +28 on Sunday afternoon and was up to +28.5 less than an hour later. Monday it went down to +27.5 in the morning, down to +26 in the afternoon, then down to +25.5 just 20 minutes later. On Tuesday it was back up to +26 where it has since leveled off. Similar activity was true for all books, in general the line has dropped 1-2 points since coming out.
The over/under started at 56 on Sunday and was down to 51 by Monday late afternoon. It currently sits at 48, an eight-point drop from Sunday to Wednesday. My thought is that as the weather reports came out Vegas projected both teams to shift gameplans to focus on the run. As we saw last week when the clock is running it can limit scoring.
The Florida State Seminoles are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. The Boston College Eagles are 0-2 ATS this season. The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The over is 5-0 in FSU’s last five games overall. Football Power Index (FPI) gives FSU a 96.7% chance to win the game outright.
For Vegas to have the over-under so low for a game they have FSU winning by 26 is not giving BC’s offense any credit. They are predicting a 37-11 game in a way. If that was the final score all bets against the spread would push at +26 and o/u 48. I think FSU scores more than 37 and BC scores more than 11. My prediction is 42-14 with FSU winning and covering the spread.
Written by Peter Collins
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